Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.018493 0.020962 0.023643 0.026771 0.030322 0.034231 0.038861
2025-06-08 0.014340 0.017671 0.021603 0.026592 0.032761 0.040151 0.049691
2025-06-15 0.012458 0.016248 0.020985 0.027348 0.035690 0.046280 0.060787
2025-06-22 0.010498 0.014338 0.019363 0.026435 0.036161 0.049107 0.067724
2025-06-29 0.009198 0.013073 0.018351 0.026085 0.037172 0.052552 0.075625
2025-07-06 0.007992 0.011767 0.017096 0.025191 0.037230 0.054561 0.081562
2025-07-13 0.007506 0.011419 0.017128 0.026093 0.039893 0.060450 0.093628
2025-07-20 0.007024 0.011014 0.017014 0.026731 0.042172 0.065916 0.105512
2025-07-27 0.006648 0.010724 0.017028 0.027540 0.044748 0.072013 0.118904
2025-08-03 0.006102 0.010106 0.016465 0.027358 0.045692 0.075564 0.128440
2025-08-10 0.005657 0.009605 0.016036 0.027336 0.046867 0.079545 0.139000
2025-08-17 0.005182 0.009010 0.015392 0.026884 0.047249 0.082191 0.147446
2025-08-24 0.004892 0.008711 0.015236 0.027277 0.049170 0.087709 0.161628
2025-08-31 0.004530 0.008255 0.014769 0.027081 0.050024 0.091428 0.172916
2025-09-07 0.004353 0.008113 0.014839 0.027852 0.052694 0.098630 0.191355
2025-09-14 0.003949 0.007517 0.014035 0.026922 0.052084 0.099678 0.198047
2025-09-21 0.003664 0.007118 0.013559 0.026566 0.052525 0.102727 0.208910
2025-09-28 0.003336 0.006608 0.012832 0.025654 0.051788 0.103407 0.215023
2025-10-05 0.003256 0.006577 0.013021 0.026573 0.054790 0.111735 0.237671
2025-10-12 0.003148 0.006483 0.013077 0.027224 0.057291 0.119248 0.259288
2025-10-19 0.003066 0.006431 0.013214 0.028048 0.060219 0.127881 0.284121
2025-10-26 0.002887 0.006164 0.012886 0.027862 0.060969 0.131962 0.299258
2025-11-02 0.002738 0.005946 0.012645 0.027840 0.062068 0.136875 0.316714